El Nino impact to be muted: BMG head

A return of El Nino could delay the onset of rains in some areas in Indonesia this year, but is unlikely to trigger drought severe enough to threaten key crops, the head of the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) said, Reuters reported.

The El Nino weather pattern, driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, can create havoc in weather conditions across the Asia-Pacific region.

The extent of the impact of El Nino in Indonesia, however, depends on other factors including water temperatures around Indonesia and the influence of a weather pattern stemming from the Indian Ocean, known as the dipole mode.

"So we cannot jump to the conclusion that El Nino will bring drought as people fear. We really need to look at other factors carefully," BMG head Sri Woro Harijono said on Thursday.

The previous three major El Ninos -- in 1973, 1983 and 1997 -- caused severe drought in Indonesia.

In those years El Nino reached its strongest level, while at the same time Indonesian waters were colder than normal and the sea surface temperature on the western side of Sumatra was also cold, said Harijono.

"The condition in 2009 is very different than in the previous three major El Nino events. Now El Nino is still weak, while (the Indonesian) sea surface temperature remains warm," she said.

El Nino can create drought because water vapor across most of Indonesia, apart from Sumatra, is sucked away to the eastern Pacific, which is warmer.

Sumatra, which has big plantations of palm oil, rubber and coffee, is not usually affected by El Nino, she said.

The BMG